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TOPIC: Numerical risk data for HIV
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My purpose in starting this thread was to get more recent and accurate numerical information about HIV transmission. Where did you get the 10 fold figure of anal vs. vaginal?

The other point in posting several studies is that they rarely agree. Studies are never done the same way, rarely with the same assumptions. Thus the effectiveness of condoms in the studies I posted varried from 60% to 95%. That is a large difference.

Correct spelling is not about what you know, rather is a factor in how well the reader understands what you are saying. While English may be totally illogical in its spelling, it is no more so than people you meet in life or on threads like this. :) It is a factor in understanding what people post. The advantage of a written thread such as this is we have time to check our spelling.

Enosburg Falls VT
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I'm highly educated, in math, science, computer programming, and many other logic based endeavors. That stirct logic thinking is counter productive to being a good speller. Screw spelling. English is the most stupid ass language in existance, and knowing how to spell a disease in no way alters the transmission rate.

The transmission of the virus/bacteria is sufficient quantity for it to take hold as an infection, is cause of the STD. Presence of the virus/bacteria is insufficeint. It must be transmitted. Factors that increase the likelihood of transmission are causal factors in the transmission.

Yes, drug use is a significant corilative factor.... But, there is also scientific foundation for it being a causal factor as well.

If vaginal female to male transmission rate of HIV in agrigate is 1 in 3000 and male to female is 1 in 1000, then what is the transmission rate if we factor out the cases where another STD is present, where the parties are drug users, where the man does not withdrawl before ejaculation, where there is insufficient lubrication, where the woman is young, thin walled and more easily bruised/abrashen, where the woman is menstrating, and all the other factors that aid in transmission???

The answer is, very low. Eventually we reach a level where it is more dangerous to drive to the swing party then to engage in unprotected vaginal sex.

Again, I'm not advocating this. I'm just looking for the truth.

Glendale AZ
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Glen:

"I'm an absolutley horrid speller, like many engineers, doctors and scientists. Spelling is the opposite of logic.

I'm an advocate of nothing except accurate information.

"The real reason crack and crank can't be isolated as cause vs. corilation is that users frequently have a high number of other risk factors like STDs, anal sex, iv drugs, sex during menstration, sex with low lube rates causing abrasions....""

I always knew I was a terrible speller. Until I got a word processor I never realized how bad. I do my best to use the correct spelling. After all I am educated and have a great spell checker. ;)

Those reasons apply to all users of drugs including alcohol. Drug differences come into play as a result of their direct action. It's harder to bonk, when you are passed out.

Drugs are a "cofactor" they do not cause but do correlate with sexual behavior that leads to STDs. Sure you are more likely to get laid if drunk, but drugs in and of themselves do not cause STDs.

-The type of sex does not cause STDs. Oral, Anal, mutual masturbation, tribadism, does not cause STDs

-No type of behavior CAUSES STDs. Drunk, receptive anal sex does NOT cause STDs.

-Sexual Orientation or lifestyle does not cause STDs. You can be gay, straight, bi, swinger, monogamous, celibate.

-Engaging in sexual BEHAVIOR with an INFECTED partner is the sole cause of STDs....

Other factors may increase your odds of STD transfer if you play with someone who has an STD...But they in no way CAUSE STDs.

To think of it another way. Pregnancy is CAUSED by a sperm fertilizing an egg. That's it. How the sperm gets to the egg may be helped or hurt by behavior. Drunk teenagers are more likely to get pregnant. I'm sure that correlates. But drinking does not cause pregnancy. Otherwise I would have a 1000 children.

There is a huge difference between causal factors and contributing factors.

M.

Glen Burnie MD
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I'm an absolutley horrid speller, like many engineers, doctors and scientists. Spelling is the opposite of logic.

And, I'm not advocating bare anything. I'm an advocate of nothing except accurate information.

The real reason crack and crank can't be isolated as cause vs. corilation is that users frequently have a high number of other risk factors like STDs, anal sex, iv drugs, sex during menstration, sex with low lube rates causing abrasions....

But, there is scientific foundation for drug use increasing transmission. Those drugs cause cellular damage which makes skin damage and bleeding more likely.

Glendale AZ
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Glen:

I like different points of view. Your posts would be more??? if you spelled the disease state correctly.. ie Gonorrhea

Crack or crystalmeth use = higher transmission rate, but unable to isolate causation from corrilation to get exact risk factor.

The reason crank and crank users have a higher rate of STDs than other users is simple. They are awake and moving around more. Heroin users "nod" when high. They don't have sex when nodding.

You are correct there are many other factors involved in STD transmission. That's one of the reasons why Africa has higher rates of heterosexual transmission.

That's why I like the relative risk chart I posted under the Bi anal thread. Numbers can change with the wind but when deciding what risks to take...I like to avoid certain behaviors/partner classes an the like.

The bottom line for ME in all of this? It's clear that HIV is NOT in the American global swinger environment. Why? Because there would be many, many cases by now...with all the bare backing going on.

M.

Glen Burnie MD
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The problem with this study is it fails to factor out other risk factors.

Anal = 10x as likely to transmit as vaginal

Ghonoria or Chlamydia = 5x as likely as if no other STD present

Crack or crystalmeth use = higher transmission rate, but unable to isolate causation from corrilation to get exact risk factor

Age of woman, amount of lubricaition, hormonal birth control = higher transmission rate, but unable to isolate causation from corrilation to get exact risk factor.

Pre-cum has a viral load 1/10th the rate of seman, and the volume is much, much less. Some stuides have shown withdrawl prior to ejacualtion to lower the risk of male to female transmission to a rate lower than female to male transmission, which is already half the risk of male to female.

So, what is the transmission rate of vaginal sex, when no other STDs present, between non-drug users, for a 30-40 year old woman, plenty lubed, not on the pill, and the man withdrawls prior to orgasim?

Answer is.... Sample size too small. Isolate out those other risk factors and there aren't enough cases left to get a good read on the risk factor, other than, very, very, very low.

Glendale AZ
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Just wondering, but why are you quoting a 20 year-old article?

There has been SO much research since then.

Glendale AZ
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“"For instance, research indicates that anal sex is 2 to 3 times more risky than vaginal sex”

This means that bare back vaginal sex is very dangerous when the partner is HIV+. Hence the problems in the inner city.

“choosing insertive fellatio rather than insertive anal sex, 13-fold."

This is obviously data culled from men who have sex with men. The reason I say that? What woman would butt f*** a guy but not blow him?

The take home is that not knowing your partner’s current HIV status is dangerous when playing with higher risk groups. IV drug users, sex workers both male and female, inner city folks, and men who have sex with men (MSM). Frequent HIV testing is very important along with extremely selective partner choices.

Mischief

Glen Burnie MD
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Poly, neither of the links you posted work in my browser. Might you check them out to see if there is a misspelling or bad punctuation? Thanks.

Enosburg Falls VT
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From the USAID website:

"Scientific studies of sexually active couples, where one partner is infected with HIV and the other partner is not, have demonstrated that the consistent use of latex condoms reduces the likelihood of HIV infection by 80 to 90 percent."

From the Center of AIDS Intervention Research:

"Although recent meta-analyses of condom effectiveness suggest that condoms are 60 to 70% effective when used for HIV prophylaxis, these studies do not isolate consistent condom use, and therefore provide only a lower bound on the true effectiveness of correct and consistent condom use. A reexamination of HIV seroconversion studies suggests that condoms are 90 to 95% effective when used consistently, i.e. consistent condom users are 10 to 20 times less likely to become infected when exposed to the virus than are inconsistent or non-users."

Enosburg Falls VT
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TOPIC: Numerical risk data for HIV