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TOPIC: Predictions!!!
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Tbr didn't I tell you that if Romney wins is buy you a bottle of glenlivet?

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Oh, duh - I get it. Pretty clever.

Windermere FL
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How ridiculous that in the last week before the election I am completely clueless as to what's going on?

I still think that Obama will win.

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It was a kind of joke.

I do have a bottle of 21 year old Glenlivet, of which I will have a shot if Obama wins. Shit is way too expensive for just an average outing.

However, should Obama fail to secure a second term, I figure the bottle will have aged four more years...

I actually prefer the 18 over the 21. More of a caramel taste. My wife bought me the 21 for my birthday. Way too expensive for what you get...

Fullerton CA
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You have 21 and 25 year Glenlivet?

Damn dude. I've come to really love the 12 year. Irrespective (which I still say is a word) of who wins, I wish to compare notes with you about them. I am definitely learning more about scotch. But I think I have some excellent bourbons to recommend to you which I have read are considered favorable among scotch drinkers.

Anyway - I'll raise a shot of 12 year Glenlivet (because I'm not liking the Abelour much) to you and wish you well in the spirit of a long, hard fought campaign.

I insist on this: whoever wins, life will go on. Neither candidate is nearly as extreme as the other side says (and I will ignore all arguments from either side to engage on that) and neither candidate will really make the huge changes the other says, or even the changes they realistically want to make.

The only thing I will say is - hey Senate - PASS A FUCKING BUDGET.

Windermere FL
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My snacks will include a shot of 21 year old Glenlivet when they call the election for Obama.

Or a shot of 25 year old Glenlivet if he loses and Hillary wins in 2016...

Fullerton CA
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Here is my vabeachcouple33 official prediction. There are a few "alternative" scenarios I have detailed below, because so many states are so close, there are a number of alternatives. It's a mixture of analysis and "gut". I completely admit there are other scenarios I am not considering. This is just a quick-and-dirty.

Obama 281, Romney 257. 45% probability.

This is taking the electoral-vote . com map, giving the ties of NC and CO, plus VA to Romney. I'm just not buying it that Obama will hold NC and VA this time around.

Alternatives:

Obama wins with 290 by also taking Colorado. 10% chance. Obama wins with more than 290 - 10% chance

So, I'm giving a 65% chance of Obama winning.

Alternatives involving Romney winning (total 35%):

Romney 275 Obama 263; (the 1st Obama wins scenario, except Romney takes Ohio), 20% probability

Romney ~272-275 - as the first Obama wins scenario by not taking Ohio but making up the difference from other states, such as MI, WI, IA, NH, NV. 10% chance

Romney wins with some other scenario, such as taking PA, or with more than 280 - 5%. I think there is almost no chance of either candidate getting more than about 303.

Chances of the election landing in the courts if Obama wins: 50%.

Chances of the election landing in the courts if Romney wins: 100%.

Windermere FL
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Gallup suspended its polling for a few days last week due to the hurricane. At the time Gallup rated Romney a 5-point favorite. Their last poll just issued today is based on calls over three days ending yesterday, and shows the race narrowed to a one point Romney advantage.

That tends to confirm the other polls showing Obama with momentum, but who knows if it will be enough.

Belle Chasse LA
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He will still need Ohio, but I will not find out until Wed morning maybe. I have no intention of watching it.

Sanford NC
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He's watching the returns for the same reason i'm watching the saints try and play tonight.

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TOPIC: Predictions!!!
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