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TOPIC: Predictions!!!
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1252 to 1261 of 1967
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I understand that, tbr. But I think you know what I mean, and I'm sure it impacts the reliability of polls as the campaign moves on and fewer people have the patience for a poll - *again*.

Massaging only works so well. Black females who answer the phone, for instance, may have different voting habits than those who do not. As participation in polls gets lower and lower, the ability to tease out the "real" answer becomes increasingly difficult.

Windermere FL
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" Problem is that poll participation is very low - I forget the numbers but I seem to recall reading that to get a sample of 1,000 or so people, they had to make 35,000 phone calls. Only 3% of people they dialed answered and agreed to go along with it?"

The last numbers I saw were that live pollsters got about a 10% response rate, and the robo-polls are about 3%.

Also, each pollster has their own formula for likely voters. They "massage" the data based on their formula.

Let's say, to make the numbers easy, that a pollster surveys 100 people. Of those, his formula says that 2% of likely voters to be black females.

However, Perf is the only black female to respond. So the pollster will count Perf's response twice, to make 2% of likely voters black females. Those groups that are over sampled will have their responses count a little bit less.

Over time, this method evens out. That is one reason why you never, ever, take just one poll to predict a race...

Fullerton CA
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"it ain't over yet,,,But it would appear that Romney is starting to pull away. It's gonna be interesting to watch the Liberals hitting the streets crying foul & racism when Romney wins."

You are delusional to believe that. After Obama wins, we get to hear you guys continue your bitchfest for another 4 yrs...

Brown Deer WI
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Mrs VA would sometimes just give random answers just to try to confuse the results.

Saturation-polling like here in Virginia has got to be irritating more people than just Mrs. VA.

Although I would say pro-Romney calls are coming in at 5:1 vs pro-Obama calls. I think Obama is writing off Virginia and is betting the farm on Ohio, whereas Romney has to win both.

Windermere FL
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"The very nature of telephone polling may be turned on its ass. What if the final results don't even resemble the polls?"

At least the phone polls used to be by a real person. Now you get 'press 1' for this. I lie on the phone polls all the time. I want to see if I can swing the black female data.

lol

Pittsburgh PA
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Odds are still with Obama, no argument.

It'll be interesting to see how "off" pollsters are this year. Problem is that poll participation is very low - I forget the numbers but I seem to recall reading that to get a sample of 1,000 or so people, they had to make 35,000 phone calls. Only 3% of people they dialed answered and agreed to go along with it?

Where we say a poll is a sample of "likely voters", it's more like a sample of "likely voters who humor pollsters".

While most people will answer ANY call that comes into their house, people often ignore a number on their cell they don't recognize.

And I know with Mrs VA - we get at least 6 calls a day in our house. Mrs VA is tired of answering polls and political calls. In the beginning, she would go along with every one. She hangs up on every one now.

The very nature of telephone polling may be turned on its ass. What if the final results don't even resemble the polls?

Windermere FL
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All of the preceding being said, I have yet to see an electoral college projection that shows Romney actually winning the election.

Romney's momentum, by most measures, has slowed significantly.

Discounting the Rasmussen poll of Ohio today, Obama has been ahead in Ohio for weeks. Nate Silver gives Obama a 73% chance of winning there. Pretty good odds. And if Obama wins Ohio, Romney pretty much has to run the table of all other swing states to win. Tall order...

However, the election will be very, very close.

Fullerton CA
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Well...

I do think that there are Republicans in office that are doing everything they can to suppress voter turnout. I suppose you could call that "stealing" the election by a pretty broad definition.

The evidence for that is pretty conclusive.

However, I will not be one of those that crows about the election being stolen. Most of what the Republicans have done is legal. Or, at least, they passed laws to make it legal...

And that's all I'm gonna say 'bout that...

;-)

Fullerton CA
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I would agree,,,it ain't over yet,,,But it would appear that Romney is starting to pull away. It's gonna be interesting to watch the Liberals hitting the streets crying foul & racism when Romney wins.

Winterville NC
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You're most certainly not denying my assertion. Why don't you just come out and say it? A Romney win would be a stolen election. Do you deny that you have already reached this conclusion?

As for nobody arguing with you about your postings - you tend to overwhelm people with enormous cut-and-pastes. What takes you 5 seconds to cut and paste takes much longer to dig through and analyze, research and potentially rebut.

Besides, I've taken the time to research and rebut some of your cut and pastes before. All you do is get angry and cut and paste even more. What would be the point?

Seriously - this has been explained to you by myself and others - you are not worth debating.

Windermere FL
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1252 to 1261 of 1967
TOPIC: Predictions!!!
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