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TOPIC: Predictions!!!
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1252 to 1261 of 1977
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"You're not able to have a serious discussion about predictions. Your predictions have been clear from the get go - a Democrat clobbering all around"

Are you often in the habit of making circular arguments with self-cancelling statements?

I started the thread VA. I keep bringing this thread BACK to predictions as well. Look around VA, it's your buddies that are polluting this thread with vitriol, not me.

Oh, and I HAVE given my reasons for my opinions here. To phrase my predictions dismissively as you did is simply another way to shut down debate, at the same time you falsely complain that I cannot have a serious discussion (why does that sound so familiar?...)

My question that apparently started this meme from you was why the righties were ignoring the subject and the information I posted, not why YOU were not. You engaged, I asked again. Sorry if that was seen as an attack.

Why do my large posts threaten you? You seem to need to reprimand me for the length of my post but patently ignore the content? If argue you must, why not on the meat of the subject instead of this deflective shit VA? You might find the content compelling and my knowledge well researched despite my apparently egregious 'cut and paste' that so many are bitching about (which everyone does a bit of too, including you).

Again, sorry if it is so overwhelming to you that you needed to take me to task about it.... I'll make sure next time I keep my argument short and vitriolic and my facts to a minimum like a good righty

East Fishkill NY
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Actually, I wrote two posts of rather serious attempts to analyze things... one of them is here.

Why am I doing this? I got it. You think I suck. Can we talk predictions?

President - My analysis The current models (based on polling alone, not other predictors) suggest that Obama will win (if the voting matched the polls precisely). But, the electoral college picture is dicey. The polls show Obama winning the popular vote by only about 1% but delivering a pretty good thumping in the electoral college - 332 to 206. This is because of the great majority of "squeaker" states are blue.

There are 122 electoral college votes at stake in states with less than 3% differences. Only one (NC) is polling red - the other 107 electoral college votes are in blue states. A very small shift to the right will result in a large loss of electoral college votes for the Democrats.

Historically, Republicans have a higher turnout rate at the polls than Democrats. So if the polls show a 50-50 split, Democrats have plenty to worry about, because it'll really be more like 52-48 when the votes are counted.

IF the election were held today, I believe the result would be very close to that in 2000 - Obama would win the electoral college - just barely - while slightly losing the popular vote. But, the election is not today, and I am still not comfy making a prediction 9 weeks out. A shift to Romney of even 2 points will be absolutely lethal to Obama. Obama cannot afford to see his poll numbers drop - at all. If he can succeed at preventing that, he will win, if not, he will lose.

Windermere FL
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I haven't examined it. I don't know how much is or is not true. Probably some is and some isn't.

I didn't bother to bring up some of the examples being seen coming from the other side either, such as the Jim Moran case. I have no patience or tolerance for anyone from either side doing such things and I want them investigated and prosecuted. Must I engage on every topic? If you've noticed, I'm really only participating in political topics concerning predictions of the election. I'm avoiding topics of ideology, because - to be honest - I don't really want to talk to anyone here about it anymore.

But, isn't this what you call a deflection? I keep talking about predictions, you try to turn every thread into a "Republicans are stealing the election".

You're not able to have a serious discussion about predictions. Your predictions have been clear from the get go - a Democrat clobbering all around. Got it. And, my prediction with respect to you is that anything less cannot possibly be legitimate.

Windermere FL
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"It's gonna be interesting to watch the Liberals hitting the streets crying foul & racism when Romney wins. "

See, liberal are not saying this. Conservatives are saying it.

Why is that?

East Fishkill NY
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""Oh, a Republican win - now, 2016, 2020 etc... will be considered illegitimate by many. Any Republican win is "stolen". Only Democrats "win", according to many people. "

Yes I remember, this was your entire premise of that post. My response was completely appropriate and could you please point out where I called you a name?

Sorry if the truth hurts bud...seriously.

Just because YOU say the factual evidence for foul play is spurious and mock it, does not mean it is. Comments like you made above do not deserve any more serious consideration than birther comments do unless you are also willing to SEE the evidence presented. I treated it as exactly such.

East Fishkill NY
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"Massaging only works so well. Black females who answer the phone, for instance, may have different voting habits than those who do not."

And that is why you don't rely on one poll from one pollster to predict an election...

But I agree. It is getting more and more difficult to do a good poll...

Fullerton CA
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"Do you deny that you have already reached this conclusion?"

I have not reached any 'conclusion' but apparently you have. Why is that? I'm simply presenting evidence and making an argument. YOU are the one having a meltdown rather than actually talk about the subject at hand. Why is that?

Why do you refuse to admit factual evidence that the Repubs are behaving as if they ARE stealing the election in many places?

Every maneuver possible but to actually discuss the facts I have brought to the table.

Why is that?

East Fishkill NY
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I've discussed this topic quite a bit. My very first reply to this thread was a serious and lengthy one. You ignored all of it and chose to focus on this:

"Oh, a Republican win - now, 2016, 2020 etc... will be considered illegitimate by many. Any Republican win is "stolen". Only Democrats "win", according to many people. "

To which you replied,

"Oh yes VA, the Republicans have spent the last 3 1/2 years affirming that Obama was elected legitimately and that elections have consequences.

Puhleeze

My respect for your opinion is slipping even further... "

Since neither of us have much in the way of interest in what the other writes, I'll just leave it at that.

Windermere FL
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""There's nothing to discuss. If Obama wins, so be it. If Romney wins, I look forward to the digital aneurysm I expect some of the people here to have. "

These are the words of someone that calls ME not worth debating?

East Fishkill NY
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"What takes you 5 seconds to cut and paste takes much longer to dig through and analyze, research and potentially rebut."

I'm sorry, were you under the mistaken impression that I don't read or understand what I am posting? Or are you under the equally false impression that because I disagree with your view of something that therefore I know less or nothing about something? Have you read it? Usually in the first paragraph or two you will know if you are interested. Feel free to ignore this thread and comment to Robert on some off-hand esoteric factoid if that is your wish, I could care less.

If it takes you an inordinate amount of your time to learn about any subject I post on, please feel free to ignore it. Do what you like. Just don't try to put this on me because I 'copy and paste in 5 seconds' what you can't or won't read. That's just juvenile...

Now, there's a topical subject at hand, do you have a point or a fruitful comment?

East Fishkill NY
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1252 to 1261 of 1977
TOPIC: Predictions!!!
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