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Hurricane Sandy's Effects on The Election : Swingers Discussion 2108191081
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FORUMSGeneral DiscussionsPoliticsHurricane Sandy's Effects on The Election
TOPIC: Hurricane Sandy's Effects on The Election
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I agree with a lot of the last few posts. Local leadership in NOLA was terrible. Nagin was a total fuckup. But comparing the problems there to some of the other areas is like apples to oranges.

I will say that the criticisms of FEMA were valid. I did a lot of relief work on the Mississippi coast (Bay St. Louis and Waveland) and FEMA got in the way more than they helped. They were more concerned with following orders from above than actually helping. I saw dozens of examples of Brownie's heckuva job, and Bush deserved the criticism for putting a political hack in a job he couldn't handle.

I wasn't real impressed with the Red Cross either. They did a lot of good things, but also adhered to bureaucratic rules too much. (I will, however, always remember fondly a cute little nurse from Florida who greatly enhanced the "relief effort.")

Belle Chasse LA
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People who live in four-season climate change altitudes are accustomed to braving the elements of nature and will find a way to vote in this national election. Those 47% whom Wicked Willard knows will not vote for him will find their way to demonstrate true American patriotism. Natural disasters bring out the 'survival of the fittest' in the souls of the human race, and citizens work together with local government will endure and prevail.

During the Gulf of Mexico, President Obama showed that he will protect and restore federal lands and national interests. He will do the same with Hurricane Sandy. He wins the true-blue human empathy and disaster survival vote.

Treasure Is FL
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Sexus is right. We lived in Louisiana at the time. We actually lost a tree and power for 24 hours when Katrina came through not that we were in it's path. Not everyone of course but the people that were used to living off the goverment were the ones with there hands out not interested in doing it themselves. People tend to forget that while New Orleans might have flooded due to leaves breaking complete towns in Mississippi were wiped off the map. But those were working class communities that didn't get on camera demanding the goverment take care of them like it had there entire lives. Instead they pulled up there boot straps and got to work like they have always done.

Most people also forget that there was a even larger and more powerful storm that hit Texas/Louisiana almost excaclty a month after Katrina. Anyone remember Rita? It hit right along the Texas/Louisiana border and was bigger with higher winds. It also wiped a few working class towns off the map. And again those people did like they always do. Went to work rebuilding there communities.

The failure of Katrina was due to more of a local (Louisiana) gorverment and the actual people affected then it was the federal goverment.

Odessa TX
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" The only time people have not unified and helped each other in either a national disaster or trauma, and instead complained and stuck out their hands instead of their hearts was Katrina"

Do you have facts to back up this statement or just Fox talking points?

East Fishkill NY
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I think there's more to it than just the weather impeding people to actually get out and vote:

1. If cleanup and relief and help go well, then the president is apt to take credit. Nevermind the hard working and self reliant people of NJ, NY and other east coast survivors, those who help their neighbors lug generators out of garages, bring over chain saws and batteries and food, encourage their friends to come use their working showers, and so on. The only time people have not unified and helped each other in either a national disaster or trauma, and instead complained and stuck out their hands instead of their hearts was Katrina (and yes, many came to help afterwards, but I'm talking about the people who were there at the time and went through it). back to my point though: He will use it to gain points. Of course. The thing about that it is that it will be seen as insincere by some, and heroic by others. Depends on your level of analytical intellect.

2. If things do not go well, if people are out of power for too many days, if their houses and properties and goods aren't restored in "due time," people tend to get frustrated and angry and need someone to blame. They go for the higher ups, b/c the higher ups are the ones who "can" help restore power, etc., or so people think. People aren't rational when angry. Ok. So that may be where Romney gets an edge if he is seen as caring, helpful. Good for us, our side, whatever you want to call it.

I find it fascinating. The whole thing: the way people think, the ones who don't think at all, the ones who blindly, deafly argue, the ones who are apathetic. It's quite amazing the hoard mentality sometimes too.

I know by the above post, you may not be able to tell "who I'm for." (Romney, in case you wonder) This post isn't about that. It's about two ways of thinking, and of looking at the hurricane's possible effect on the thinking of American people and how they will vote. Or not.

Gina

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in all likelihood, this should have little to no effect. Most people will still have cars, those taking buses should still have the public transit system and thus able to use it. We will after all have a week to get the roads open and before the lines go back up, the roads must be repaired.

Hazle Township PA
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This paper is interesting:

faculty.ucmerced. edu/thansford/Articles/Estimating%20the%20Electoral%20Effects%20of%20Voter%20Turnout.pdf

If my high-level skimming is correct, the basic points are that crap weather hurts Democrats, and hurt incumbents.

i.e Republican and anti-incumbent voters are more likely to brave the elements.

This storm is about a week early if it was to be a real game-changer. I think people just like drama.

Chesapeake VA
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"Is there any precedent for this kind of disruption in a presidential election? "

My armchair research says that given the following about historical elections:

- more of the population used to be distributed in the Northeast and mid-West and were more subjected to winter conditions in early November.

- more of the population used to be rural

- less of the population had cars (or, until about 1925, almost nobody had cars)

- our ability to keep roads clear was worse

- in the event of a winter storm, farmers were probably more concerned about keeping their crops, property and livestock safe than making sure they voted

So - my armchair conclusion is that the weather was probably even more of a factor in the past then it is right now.

What they didn't have was cable news and the internet.

Chesapeake VA
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Googling the words "weather effect election" gives scads of hits, ranging from armchair opinion to statistically supported studies.

Obviously the weather in November is probably more of a factor in, say, Minnesota or Pennsylvania, than in California.

But, Fun is correct. Seniors (except for the most frail who simply cannot get there without the help of others) have the highest turnout of any demographic. They are also the least deterred by crummy weather.

The prevailing logic is that crap weather favors Republicans. People speculate about the reasons. I will not detail them here.

But of the states most severely impacted by this particular storm - all but Virginia and North Carolina are solidly Democrat. How would lower voter turnout change anything in a state like New York or New Jersey? It will still be Democrat. Might impact some House races and state-level elections.

The election is still 9 days away. By the end of this week, it will be business as usual in VA and NC. So I predict in terms of the Presidency, it won't make a lickin' difference.

Now - the PR fallout - good or bad - is another matter. Not that it should matter - if it's a disaster, people will (wrongfully) blame the President. If it's well managed, people will (wrongfully) praise the President.

Chesapeake VA
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More of wool gathering... More curious of what others think about it.

Is there any precedent for this kind of disruption in a presidential election?

East Fishkill NY
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TOPIC: Hurricane Sandy's Effects on The Election