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Without research, I can believe this for two reasons.

1) Many of the inner city schools are populated by the people who came to the cities late, looking for a job... While the whites fled the major cities in the NorthEast.

2) Many of the whites who remained, now send their children to private schools.

Either way, short of shutting down the private schools, there is little that can be done. I do not believe that the government ought be augmenting the private school systems, only the public systems. Sadly the voters aren't in line with my thoughts on this one.

Hazle Township PA
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I'll snort on Peghey's behalf...

The most segregated public schools in the nation can be found in Mississippi... no wait, Alabama... no wait, gotta be South Carolina....

OK actually, New York. Many black and Latino students attending schools with virtually no white classmates, according to a report released Wednesday by the Civil Rights Project at the University of California at Los Angeles, which looked at enrollment trends from 1989 to 2010.

In New York City, the largest school system in the U.S. with 1.1 million pupils, the study notes that the 73 of the least diverse schools of all had less than 1 percent white enrollment.

"In the 30 years I have been researching schools, New York state has consistently been one of the most segregated states in the nation - no Southern state comes close to New York," Orfield said.

Other states with highly segregated schools include the ultra-red states Illinois, Michigan and California, according to the Civil Rights Project.

Winter Garden FL
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Well we can analyze that one to death. Point is that unless one candidate has what I call a "sex with sheep" moment (i.e. is found to be doing something from which a recovery is hopeless), it's a total crapshoot until perhaps the last 4-6 weeks.

Winter Garden FL
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Perrot would have had a good chance to win if he hadn't quit then tried to come back.


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The 1992 election was a great example of this. Early on, Bush seemed invincible, and the Democratic primary seemed more like going through the motions than a serious attempt to win, especially since Democrats had lost in every Presidential election since 1968 except 1976. By June Ross Perot led the polls, yet in the end didn't carry even one state.

Probably the 1976 election was the only one in which one could make a solid prediction this far out.

Winter Garden FL
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People don't really understand time.

Just because it is likely to happen now doesn't mean it will happen six months from now.

The Dems should spend their time trying to turn things to their favor.

And the Repubs should try to refrain from nominating any whackos.

They probably would have had the Senate by now but for the Tea Party.

Fullerton CA
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"However, 6 months is a long time in politics. And if you read the piece, Silver says as much. "

I did, actually, and I've always said more or less the same thing. The point of this post was not to crow about a projected Republican win in the Senate, it was to have a laugh at how the DNC was reacting to Nate's piece.

In previous "Predictions" threads I've always refused to make predictions more than perhaps 4-6 weeks out, simply because there is too much that can happen and the voting public is fickle.

Winter Garden FL
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I think the POTUS has an almost impossible job to always do right, and most of the media is relentless in it's search for dissention. And though I agree with many of Obama's and his party's desires to help the poor of our country, I don't think they have a clue how to make that really happen. And it hasn't happened! Because of his ineptness, we are spending and borrowing like drunken idiots, jeopardizing our future, and fucking up almost everything we are trying to improve. Added to that, and many Democrats are beginning to realize it, is Obama's failure to realize that a relentless trail of lies denude him of public trust. Yet he continues to lie to us. One after the other - like a barrage of bullshit. Believe me, we will see and hear every one of those lies, over and over again. And they will be high lighted, over and over again, by the lies and soupy stupidities of Nancy and the thug like belligerency of Harry. Right there, before our eyes, over and over a zillion times, we will see and hear that Obamacare will reduce an average family's health care cost by $2,500, and we can keep our Doctor, etc. etc. etc., ad nauseam! We will see and hear over and over how Obiedobie has proven to be a dupe in his foreign policy,( if there is such) starting with his lies about Benghazi, the shriveling red line in Syria, the laughable "all options on the table" with the Ayatollahs, (still there after 4 years), the weak fold-up pull outs in Iraq and Afghanistan, and most recently, his crumbling stature as he embarrassed us by failing to stand up to a swaggering Putin as the rest of the world gasped. And we won't be allowed to forget how the IRS thugs beat up Republican organizations prior to the last election, and how Lois Lerner will continue to be pursued like a rabbit chased by hound dogs until she folds, finally thrown under the Bus from Chicago.

And when we finally ask that most serious question, most of us who honestly think the truth, will have to admit that we are worse off, the country is worse off, the poor are worse off, the so called middle class is worse off, and though Obama is the main reason, his party must bear responsibility.

I don't know how the country will vote, but I sure know how I will! And the one thing that gags me the most is the mistrust I now have for our Country's leadership. That REALLY upsets me and really pisses me off!

Hockessin DE
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When Nate made his original predictions in 2010, Harry Reid was losing, and if the election had been held then, we would probably have a female Senator from Nevada.

However, 6 months is a long time in politics. And if you read the piece, Silver says as much.

It does look fairly grim for the Senate, unless the Dems can come up with some magic elixir that makes all the Dem voters come out...

Fullerton CA
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This is priceless.....

Remember in 2012 when NYT data bitch Nate Silver correctly predicted the election outcome in all 50 states + DC? His predictions were dismissed by Republicans and he was held up as a numbers God by Democrats, and rightfully so. He seems to know his shit very well and not be pushing any kind of agenda.

Well, he's predicting a Republican gain of 6 seats in the Senate, with the full range of being +1 to +11. So his "middle of the road" prediction is a switch of the Senate to Republicans.

Predictably, Democrats aren't happy with this prediction, and as the GOP did in 2012, are choosing to assail Nate Silver and his numbers instead of taking them seriously. They go back in time to find specific examples of Nate's analysis being wrong as a way to "debunk" his prediction.

In a, DSCC Executive Director Guy Cecil notes that Silver’s projections in 2012 in North Dakota and Montana — both conservative-leaning states — were “so far off” and that Silver also said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Sen. Michael Bennet would have little chance of winning in 2010. Not only did Reid and Bennet win four years ago, but so did Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Sen. Jon Tester in Montana in 2012, Cecil noted.

Winter Garden FL
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