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TOPIC: WTF
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I didn't look into it too closely, so it's possible that I'm recalling or interpreting something incorrectly.

Windermere FL
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And BTW I seem to recall the same thing abut the US birth rate verses other developed countries but some of this is from a talk I gave to a discussion group I belong to about ten years ago. That used figures from about five years before that. The decline in fertility rates since just the turn of the millennium are rather significant, considering that the population replacement rate is slightly over 2 live births per woman.

To say that Europe is "struggling" with this issue both politically and culturally is a major understatement I think.

Wenatchee WA
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Hmmm. Interesting.

I need to look into this a bit more to understand the discrepancy between the intrinsic fertility rate - widely acknowledged to be down from slightly over 2.1 live births per woman around the torn of the century to 1.82-1.84 today - and the figures you are quoting. The Pew Trust study, despite acknowledging declining birth rates, does not suggest that all population growth will be due to immigration (including children and grandchildren of immigrants) during this period. It does predict that this combination would account for 82% of growth.

Another point noted in the Pew study is that:

"Birthrates are assumed to be well above average for immigrants, slightly above average overall for the second generation (U.S. natives with at least one immigrant parent) and below average for subsequent generations born in the United States. The Center’s fertility rate projections are virtually identical to those of the Social Security trustees and slightly lower than those of the Census Bureau."

Wenatchee WA
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888 come on now you claim to be knowledgeable in computers and scientific software. Go purchase a copy of SPSS, you do have to pay for it, and lets see you load SPSS onto your phone.

Las Vegas NV
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As best I recall, the US has one of the highest birth rates in the developed world, and is one of the only developed countries that growths aside from immigration.

In 2016 we had 4 million births, 3.3 million immigrants, and 2.6 million deaths. Net gain 4.7 million. So immigration accounts for about 47% of our growth.

Mind you, the birth rate among 1st generation immigrants is higher than that among those born in the US, so without a strong immigrant population, our growth rate would be lower still.

Of course, some will get on their "world has too many people" horse, which is another topic.

Windermere FL
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I don't read Nutcal's posts or the politics threads, but I'm wondering what the point is.

In point of fact, since 2009 the fertility rate of the US has been below 2.0 births per woman (down from a high of 3.8 in the 1950s). If the US wants to continue to grow, it will be through immigration. There is no other realistic possibility. A 2008 Pew Trust study predicted that by 2050, 19% of Americans will be foreign born, a historically high level compared to earlier immigrant influx peaks which were around 14%, and that the percentage of the US population consisting of "non-Hispanic whites" would decline from 67% in 2005 to 47% in 2050. The study also presciently predicted that "future political decisions may impact these figures somewhat".

My own predictions are that there will be a major realignment of the political parties around issues of both population growth and economic growth as it relates to immigration, and around class as it relates to educational status and the earning potential thereof. Donald Trump may be first President of the modern era to judge that the politics of being openly nativist, openly racist, and openly white supremacist can work in his favor. I predict that, sadly, he won't be the last.

Wenatchee WA
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ncal should take a bow, as his new stupid post in Politics claimed that the US has brought in 10 million new immigrants in the last 10 years is quite accurate. 10,668,262, to be precise (2007 through 2016, DHS numbers).

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Windermere FL
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“All you people know how to do is cash your free government checks."

Ncal: Free cheese and trial software.

Thank you for your contributions to the Democratic Microsoft Single Male Liberal Leftist Wing and the IBM Lifestylers of Nevada. Without your help, there would be no more lifestyle, SPSS, SAS nor Free Trial Windows compatible statistical software.

Charles Town WV
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That last post reminds me of a Memorial Day weekend many years ago. Returning from a hike with my girlfriend in one of those long lines of traffic that make it pointless to bother passing anyone. That was lost on one asshole in a convertible corvette who was passing at every opportunity including blind corners. He was sort of dueling with a guy in a large pickup about eight cars in front of me when he approached yet another blind curve, almost a ninety degree corner, in a small town speed zone. Mr. Corvette made his move. He floored it, amazingly steering with only one hand while he tossed an empty beer can at pickup guy and then flipped him off. The whole sequence took probably three seconds and was executed right in front of a State Patrol parked on the far side of the corner. The line of traffic came to a polite stop to let the gallant officer in of course. What followed was like a reception line. Flashing lights, honks, waves. Unforgettable display of instant Karma.

Wenatchee WA
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Free trial software come on already. you people have no idea how to use SPS or SASS or any of the software that is used in science.

I bet you people dont even know how to use Excel.

All you people know how to do is cash your free government checks.

Las Vegas NV
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TOPIC: WTF
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