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Where's Ours : Swingers Discussion 114249
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TOPIC: Where's Ours
Created by: DSpghcouple The original post for this thread was deleted.
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My company has an office in Austin (actually, I'll be there for a couple days atteh end of this month). They have ALL bought big, grand new houses in the last year. Seriously, like everyone that works there. It was just common knowledge that prices were about to skyrocket, and they were all going to get rich when they sold in a couple years.

6 months ago we had a big meeting herein PHX, and I walked them through our numbers here. Heck, back then we were off only 20-25% from peak. Not the 30+% like now. I talked about guys in the office loosing their butts... As I went on and on, I could see fear start to enter a few of their eyes. Like they had never even imagined the concept that what goes up (unaffordably) has to come back down.

This was not a boom based on fundamentals of rising incomes or real economic boom. It was based on cheap money, loose lending, and wild rampent speculation.

Glendale AZ
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Not only are we looking at about 40%-50% drop in house prices on a national level, we're also going to have a massive correction in residential real estate that will trigger losses every bit as big as the losses coming in residential.

We're on the brink of collapse, and $700 billion in only a 1/10th the amount needed to clean up this disaster."

My God. Yes, its bad. And like I said, the Austin area is boomtown so I cannot believe how bad it is in the less economically sound areas of the country. My friend is an architect and they aren't being hit hard yet because they deal with big money players and very wealthy people who I think foresaw this coming...but the average family is just getting run over. Now given, I think the "boom" in around 2001 set us up. There were families buying homes WAYYYYY out of their league. We had friends who honestly were living a million dollar lifestyle on 50,000 a year....and you KNOW thats going to catch up to you sooner or later. And it did. My other friend just closed on a new house. She was buying a condo but they fell through 2 weeks ago. OMG, there are families who just bought condos with the promise that it was going to be the "utopia" community, the pool, golf course, etc. etc. Now it all fell through and not only is there no utopia, half the unfinished condos are sitting there and they are stuck in 30 year mortgages. She said the workers of the mortgage company told her they were working 24-7 to get families in homes because they didn't know if they would have jobs on that following Monday. It is just terrifying.


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Lost, it is national.

Here in Phoenix we're down 30% over the last 2 years. And that is not enough to put us in the top 5 for drops.

While it is true there is not national real estate market, there was a national debt market. Easy money caused loose lending standards and that caused booms in EVERY market in the country.

For 50 years, from 1950-2000... the entire suburban era, natioanlly the medain house price sat right at 3x median income. More in areas with lots of high paying jobs and a shortage of housing. Less in most of the rest of the country, but the average was 3. Why? That is considered a safe debt load.

In markets with true housing shortage, prices setteled around 100x a month's rent becasue thatis pretty much the break even point between whether buying or renting makes more economic sense.

When 2001 tech wreck hit, Fed dropped interest rates to 1%. Money flowed from other deposits that werepaying low interest rates, into mortgage backed securities that had better returns. Demand for MBS allowed lenders to lower lending standards, ignighting a speculative bubble where anyone with a heartbeat could get a loan for virtually any amount of money.

On flat wages, we had an 80% jump in median house price. The price/income ratio jumped from the 50 year normal of 3, to about 5.5. The price/rent ratio jumped from 100 to 200.

So far we've seen about a 15-20% drop on a national level. That is less than half the correction needed. But, we've overbuilt horridly, meaning we're likely to see a bad overcorrection to the down-side.

Not only are we looking at about 40%-50% drop in house prices on a national level, we're also going to have a massive correction in residential real estate that will trigger losses every bit as big as the losses coming in residential.

We're on the brink of collapse, and $700 billion in only a 1/10th the amount needed to clean up this disaster.

Glendale AZ
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The housing industry I think is going to hit rock bottom. Here in the Austin area we are already seeing it, and this is boomtown. 2 separate condominium sites have stopped mid-build. Our office was supposed to be sold in December to destroy for condos, all investors have fallen through. I think the housing market is just going to collapse. I do not know if this is national or just Texas. But as of Oct. 1st you must put a down payment on a home loan. Lots of people here are really upset about that.


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airlines, travel industry, retailers, healthcare... you name it.

Wages have not kept up with inflation, and we've been borrowing the difference. If we can't keep spending 110% of our income, the entire US economy is toast.

Glendale AZ
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TOPIC: Where's Ours